Stamford population set to rise to 160,200 by 2026

Stamford faces a predicament. The population is growing and the provision of new housing isn’t keeping up.

With the average age of a 'Stamfordian' being 41.8 years (compared to the East Midlands average of 40.0 years old and the national average of 39.4 years of age), the population of Stamford is growing at an alarming rate. This is due to an amalgamation of longer life expectancy, a fairly high birth rate (compared to previous decades) and high net immigration, all of which contribute to housing shortages and burgeoning house prices.

We commissioned some research by Durham University specifically for the South Kesteven District Council area. Known as the UK’s leading authority for such statistics, Durham University’s population projections make some startling reading…

For the South Kesteven District Council area ... these are the statistics and forecasts:

2016 population          140,140

2021 population          145,950
2026 population          151,482
2031 population          156,166
2036 population          160,293
 

The normal ratio of people to property is 2:1 in the UK, which therefore means...

We need just over 10,000 additional new properties to be built in the South Kesteven District Council area over the next 20 years.

Whilst focusing on population growth does not tackle the housing crisis in the short term in Stamford, it has a fundamental role to play in long-term housing development and strategy in the town.

The rise of Stamford property values over the last 6 years since the credit crunch are primarily a result of a lack of properties coming onto the market, a lack of new build properties and rising demand (especially from landlords looking to buy property to rent them out to the growing number of people wanting to live in Stamford, but can’t buy or rent from the Council).

Although many are talking about the need to improve supply (i.e. the building of new properties), the issue of accumulative demand from population growth is often overlooked. Nationally, the proportion of 25-34 year olds who own their own home has dropped dramatically from 66.7% in 1987 to 43.8% in 2014, whilst 78.2% of over 65s own their own home. Longer life expectancies mean houses remain in the same hands for longer.

The swift population growth over the last 30 years provides more competition for the young than for the more mature population.  It might surprise some people that 98% of all the land in the UK is either industrial, commercial or agricultural, with only 2% being used for housing, which means one could propose expanding supply to meet an expanding population by building on green belt – that’s a topic most politician’s haven’t got the stomach to tackle, especially in the Tory strongholds of the South of England where the demand is the greatest.

 

Some people suggest building on brownfield sites, but recent research suggests there aren’t as many sites to build on, especially in Stamford that could accommodate 10,000 properties in the next 20 years.

In the short to medium term, housing demand will continue to grow in Stamford (and the country as a whole). In the short term, that demand can only be met from the private rental sector, which is good news for homeowners and landlords alike as that keeps house prices higher.

In the long term though, local and national Government and the UK population as a whole, need to realise these additional millions of people over the next 20 years need to live somewhere. Only once this issue starts to get addressed, in terms of extra properties being built in a sustainable and environmentally friendly way, can we all help create a socially ecological prosperous future for everyone.

For more thoughts on the Stamford Property market, please visit the Stamford Property Market Blog: www.rutlandandstamfordpropertyblog.co.uk