94.9% of the Rutland homeowners are over 35 yrs old... The affect of their Brexit vote on the Rutland Property Market

Well it’s been 5 weeks since the Referendum vote and we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took.  Many of you read the article I wrote on the morning of the results.  I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of my ‘Remain’ article all but finished, only to be presented at just after 5am with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU!  I don’t think any of us were expecting that outcome!

If you want to read a copy of that original ‘post Brexit’ blog article, please visit my blog www.rutlandandstamfordpropertyblog.co.uk and scroll back to late June to find it.  Now that the dust has settled a little, I will continue to look at what affect the Rutland homeowners vote has had on their own property market so far.

In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Rutland County Council area voted as follows...

Rutland County Council          ‘Remain’ Votes                        11,353             (49.4% of the vote)

Rutland County Council          ‘Leave’ Votes                           11,613             (50.6% of the vote)

Rutland County Council Turnout: 78.1%

I have read there is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote ‘Remain’ than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's techniques may have been widely criticised (following them wrongly predicting both the 2010 General Election and the Brexit results), anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.

Interestingly, the average age of a Rutland resident is 42.4 years old, which is above the national average of 39.3, which might go someway to back up the way Rutlanders voted.  What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a ‘remain’ or ‘leave’ voter, the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).

Interestingly, when we look at the homeownership rates in the Rutland County Council area, of the 10,716 properties that are owned in the Rutland County Council area (owned meaning owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.

Age 16 to 34 homeowners          538   or        5.0% (Nationally 9.6%)

Age 35 to 49 homeowners      2,636    or     24.6%  (Nationally 29.2%)

Age 50 to 64 homeowners      3,605    or     33.6%  (Nationally 30.7%)

Aged 65+ homeowners           3,937    or     36.7%  (Nationally 30.5%)

So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Rutland County Council area homeowners would vote ‘remain’ to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote ‘out’ so house prices come down- and they could afford to buy.

But, there's a risk in oversimplifying this.  The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.

So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’ - because many didn't!

… and the Rutland Property Market? Well, read my original article in the Rutland Property Blog and you can make up your own mind:  www.rutlandandstamfordpropertyblog.co.uk