What does 2016 have in store for the Oakham Property Market?

 

Will Oakham house prices go up or down? And if so, by how much?

Those of you who regularly read this blog will know I am not the sort of person who pulls punches nor someone who ever fails to give a forthright and straight talking opinion.  So here are my thoughts for the 3,248 Oakham homeowners and landlords.

The average Oakham property is 2.8% higher today than it was a year ago, which doesn’t sound a lot, but when you consider inflation is currently running at -0.1% (i.e. consumer/retail prices are dropping) and average salary growth is only around 2.5% pa. 

This is bad news for first time buyers as property affordability continues to decrease (although I was reading in The Times the other day that wage inflation (i.e. salary growth) is showing signs of weakening).

Some commentators have said the higher stamp duty taxes announced a few weeks ago in the Autumn Statement for Buy-to-Let landlords will really dampen the property market, with concerns over first time buyer affordability and the outlook of UK interest rate rises in 2016.

Well, I hope you all read my previous article in my blog about what the new stamp duty rule changes would REALLY mean for Oakham landlords, but I believe the real issue in the Oakham property market is the shortage of property to buy, as people either worry there will be no suitable house to move to, or simply cannot afford to upgrade.

However, on the supply side, Mr Osborne said in his Autumn Statement that he will change the planning laws to ensure the government meets the pledge made at the General Election (back in May) of 200,000 new homes a year.  All I can say is “good luck George hitting those numbers”!

Why? Because houses take years to build, not months.  So, George and his fabled house building aside - where does that leave us in Oakham in 2016?

And talking of supply...whilst Mr Osborne builds his properties (and let’s be honest - a week doesn’t go by without him being filmed on a building site with a high viz jacket and hard hat building a house here and there.  Oh, isn’t he doing well with those targets!), let us look at the shortage of properties for sale. Back in March 2012, 168 properties were for sale in Oakham.  Today that figure is 122.

On the face of it, this means there is less choice for Oakham buyers, but it also means with a restricted supply of properties for sale.  It keeps property prices high for Oakham house sellers and pushes up rental prices.

Everything isn’t all doom and gloom though.  Back in March 2012, the average property in Oakham took 111 days to find a buyer.  The latest figures state this has dropped to 96 days, a drop of 14% in the time it takes to find a buyer.

However, when you delve even deeper, the best performing type of property today in Oakham is the 2 bed, which takes just 89 days to find a buyer (on average) compared to the 1 bed, which takes 210 days. It just goes to show, even though the average has dropped since 2012, how varied that change has been!

So, back to the question everyone is asking – “What will happen to property values in Oakham in 2016”? 

I am going to suggest they will rise between 2% and 2.5%. Nothing out of the ordinary, but unless something cataclysmic happens in the world, 2016 will be like 2015!