Since the Millennium, Rutland house prices have risen by 145.86%, whilst
average salaries in Rutland have only grown by 51.27% over the same time frame.
This has served to push homeownership
further out of reach for many ‘Rutlanders’ as they have to battle against
raising considerable
deposits and, as a result of new mortgage regulations introduced in 2014/5, meet
sterner lending criteria.
The private rental market in Rutland has grown
throughout the last 20 years with buy-to-let investors purchasing a high
proportion of newly built residential properties that were built and designed
for the owner occupier sales markets. For example, in the Rutland and Melton constituency,
roll the clock back 20 years and there were 35,421 properties in the constituency,
whilst the most recent set of figures show there are 41,882 properties - a
growth of 6,461 properties.
However, anecdotal evidence suggests that a large number of those 6,461 were bought by Rutland buy-to-let landlords, as over the same 20-year time frame, the number of rental properties has grown from 2,513 to 5,968 in the constituency - a rise of 3,455 properties.
Nevertheless, some say this historic growth of the Rutland rental market
might start to change with the new tax rules for landlords introduced by Mr.
Osborne over the last seven or eight months. Yet the numbers tell another story. Across the board, mortgage borrowing climbed to a 9 year zenith in
March this year as the British property markets traditional Easter rush
corresponded with landlords hurrying to beat George Osborne’s new stamp duty
changes. Buy-to-let landlords borrowed
£7.1bn in March 2016 (the latest set of figures released) which was 163% up on
the £2.7bn borrowed in the previous March.
Personally,
I don’t think things will get worse in the buy-to-let market in Rutland and here
are my reasons:
Firstly, what
else are Rutland landlords going to invest in if it isn’t property? The stock
market? Since the Millennium, the stock market has risen by an
unimpressive total of 5.54%, quite different to the 145.86% rise in Rutland
property prices?
Secondly, its
true the 3% stamp duty is the first blow on top of a number of other tax changes to be phased
in between 2017 and 2021, such as landlords facing a constraint in their
ability to offset mortgage interest and, if sizeable
numbers of landlords do take the decision to sell their portfolios, this will
lead to a substantial amount of second hand properties being put up for sale. Yet
that might not be a bad thing, as I have mentioned in previous articles there
is a serous shortage of properties to buy at the moment in Rutland: the stock
of property for sale being at a 6 year all-time low.
Thirdly, if there are fewer rental
properties in Rutland, as supply drops and demand remains the same (although
ask any letting agent in Rutland and they will say demand is constantly rising)
this will create a squeeze in the Rutland rental market and as a result, rents
will rise. In fact, I predict even if
landlords don’t sell up, Rutland rents will rise as Rutland landlords seek to compensate
for increased costs, which means more landlords will be attracted back.
For more thoughts, facts and
figures on the Rutland property market, you might find the Rutland Property
Market blog of interest: www.rutlandandstamfordpropertyblog.co.uk